OLMIS

by Guy Tauer
Published Jan-4-2012

South Coast Payrolls Expected to Grow by Nearly 3,000 Jobs

Every other year, the Oregon Employment Department forecasts industry and occupational employment 10 years into the future. These employment projections are developed with several goals in mind. They are not calculated in order to pinpoint precise employment levels 10 years down the road, but rather to point students, job seekers, career changers, counselors, planners, policy makers, business leaders, and others in the right direction when making career planning decisions. This summary focuses on industry projections. Next month, we'll analyze the 2010 to 2020 occupational forecast for the region.

While projections are developed for a precise time period, we are really looking at the long-term trend. In other words, we are attempting to predict where the economy will be in the long run - we are not trying to predict fluctuations in the business cycle. We do not know, for instance, if we will be at a high point or a low point of the business cycle come the end of the projections period. Our goal is not necessarily to hit the exact level of employment 10 years in the future, but to determine overall trends that can be used for career and policy planning.

The Oregon Employment Department's 2010 to 2020 industry employment forecast predicts that total payroll employment will grow by 11 percent over the decade, adding 2,970 jobs to the South Coast economy (Table 1). South Coast's private sector will grow by 12 percent over the period, while government payrolls will expand by only 7 percent. The region's private-sector employers are expected to increase their payrolls by 2,430 jobs over the next 10 years, accounting for 82 percent of all new jobs in the region. Oregon overall is expected to gain nearly 300,000 jobs over the next 10 years, with the South Coast accounting for about 1 percent of the total statewide increase.

Most of the South Coast's major industry sectors are anticipated to grow in the coming years, but about half of all growth is anticipated to occur in the region's three largest industries: educational and health services (+ 550 jobs); trade, transportation, and utilities (+430 jobs); and leisure and hospitality (+420 jobs). Professional and business services (+440 jobs) is also expected to gain jobs through 2020. The manufacturing sector is expected to add 160 jobs over the period while the construction industry adds 120.

Examining the rate of growth, rather than the number of jobs gained, shows that educational and health services, and business and professional services are expected to be the region's first and second fastest growing broad industries over the next decade. The South Coast's manufacturing industry is not anticipated to reach its pre-recession employment level before the year 2020. Wood product manufacturing employment is only expected to increase by 4 percent, while food manufacturing is projected to only rise by 3 percent.

Natural resources and mining is expected to grow faster than the overall average, up 14 percent by 2020. The mining and logging component is predicted to grow by 21 percent, in no small part due to the Oregon Resources Corporation Chromite mining operation that began operation in 2011.

Retail trade is expected to grow at a slower pace than the all-sector average, only up by 8 percent by 2020. Continued migration to e-commerce and online shopping, sometimes called the "Amazon Effect," will suppress employment in traditional brick-and-mortar retail trade establishments. Call centers and employment services firms are expected to boost employment in the South Coast's business and professional services industry by 18 percent over the decade.

An aging population, along with in-migration from retirees is expected to boost employment in the educational (private) and health services sector by 19 percent by 2020. Most of these jobs are in health care and social assistance.

Leisure and hospitality is forecast to grow by 13 percent over the forecast period, slightly faster than the overall job growth rate. Bandon Dunes, the Mill Casino, the Dunes recreational areas, sport fishing and crabbing, and all of the other natural and recreational amenities the South Coast has to offer will continue to bring dollars into the area and create demand for new jobs in the South Coast economy.

While total government payrolls are expected to grow 7 percent by the year 2020, federal government job counts will likely decrease by 8 percent (-40 jobs) in the coming decade due largely to declining employment within the U.S. Postal Service. State government will add 60 jobs, while local governments add 510 jobs over the period.

The South Coast has only one other published industry sector that is expected to lose employment in the coming decade: information is expected to decline 14 percent over the decade.