OLMIS

by Brenda Turner
Published Jan-26-2012

Moderate Growth Projected Overall Detailed Occupations No Demand? Education High, Medium or Low? Summary More Information

Every other year, the Oregon Employment Department undertakes the task of projecting industry and occupational employment 10 years into the future. These employment projections are developed with several goals in mind. They are not calculated to pinpoint precise employment levels 10 years down the road, but rather to point students, job seekers, career changers, counselors, planners, policy makers, business leaders, and others in the right direction when making career planning and educational funding decisions.

This is the second of two articles detailing Oregon's 2010 to 2020 employment projections. The first article was published last month and focused on industry employment projections.

Highlights in the 2010 to 2020 occupational employment projections include new and replacement job openings expected to the tune of 728,000 over this period, health care occupations remaining strong, and all broad occupational categories expected to grow. But before we get too carried away with the highlights, it is important to note that employment in 2010 was 121,000 lower than in 2008, and despite moderate growth between 2010 and 2020, one out of three occupations is expected to have less employment in 2020 than it did in 2008.

Every broad occupational group should add jobs over the decade between 2010 and 2020, but this reflects the long-term, bigger-picture trend over this decade only. Keep in mind the severe employment dip that occurred just before the start of this period. An 18.1 percent growth rate over 10 years is not too bad, but given the ground that needs to be made up to climb out of the hole left by the Great Recession, it puts a damper on the rate.

The Great Recession eliminated many jobs, and it is going to take years to recover. Even with the 18.1 percent growth rate, getting back to pre-recession levels won't happen in the next decade for many occupations. When analyzing the current projections data, looking at the employment levels in 2008 compared to those in 2010 and in 2020 helps paint a clearer picture of the employment situation.

Employment in 2008 was 1,765,241. By 2010, it fell to 1,642,186. Although it is projected to rise to over 1.9 million by 2020, of the 720 occupational categories, 237 are projected to have a lower level of employment in 2020 than they did in 2008.

Carpenters had a 2008 employment level of 13,637 and it fell to 9,080 in 2010. In 2020, the level is projected to be just 11,287. There were 1,480 forester jobs in 2008 and only 778 in 2010, and just 845 jobs are anticipated in 2020. Automotive service technicians dropped from 6.067 in 2008 to 4,268 in 2010 and there are expected to be 5,057 at the end of the decade. The list goes on. Half of these 237 occupations are in construction and extraction; installation, maintenance, and repair; and production positions. Following industry trends, the long-term outlook for these positions is drab.

On the positive side, the remaining 483 occupational categories are expected to hold their own or increase employment by 2020. In addition to growth job openings, such as those caused by a new business opening or an existing business expanding, over 428,000 job openings (43% more than growth openings) are expected due to the need to replace workers who leave their occupation (Table 1). They could leave for a variety of reasons, including retirement. The baby boom retirement bubble is here, though many boomers have reconsidered their retirement plans as their retirement fund levels dropped, their spouses lost their jobs, or just due to the economic uncertainty over the past few years.

No matter what causes a job opening, whether it is due to economic expansion or workers leaving their occupation for another, or leaving the labor force altogether, each opening equals an opportunity for another worker who is trying to enter the occupation. It also equals an opening that an employer needs to fill with a qualified applicant.

Among the occupations with employment of at least 500, 21 of the top 50 fastest growing occupations are health care related, including several types of therapists, technicians, and technologists. Another nine occupations fall into the construction category. But there is more to the story than the growth rates, which range from a hearty 26 percent to 34 percent among these nine occupations. Every one of them lost employment from 2008 to 2010.

The occupations with the most job openings remained similar to previous projections cycles, with retail salespersons, cashiers, waiters and waitresses, food preparation workers, and registered nurses topping the list (Table 2).

Only a handful of occupations are not expected to add any jobs between 2010 and 2020. Just 27 occupations fall into this category, compared to over 100 in the previous 2008 to 2018 employment projection figures.

Among the 27 are postal workers, printing-related occupations, and travel agents. No surprises here. Larger occupations on this short list include forest and conservation technicians, telecommunications equipment and line installers and repairers, and photographers.

All occupations with flat or declining employment levels from 2010 to 2020 actually do have job openings due to the need to replace workers leaving the occupation. They do not, however, have job openings related to growth. The number of growth openings for declining occupations is set at zero in the forecast. Technically, the change in employment is negative for declining occupations, but this does not translate into a negative number of job openings. For example, advertising sales agents had employment of 1,491 in 2010 and will drop to 1,460 by 2020. The employment drop of 31 equates to no growth job openings because logic tells us that you can't have a negative number of job openings. Replacement openings factor in the lost jobs for occupations with declining employment. Add in the 451 replacement openings and the data show 451 total job openings from 2010 to 2020.

Employment Department analysts reviewed each of the 720 individual occupations and determined the most common education level sought by employers hiring workers for each occupation. This level is obviously not set in stone. It varies by employer and the state of the economy, among other factors. Required education and training levels are generally higher for job seekers when the economy is in a downturn and it is an "employers' market," while required levels are generally lower when the economy is expanding and employers are more desperate for workers.

Less than one-quarter of all projected job openings require a college degree (Graph 1). The majority of openings will require related work experience, or the occupations allow for adequate training while on the job. This training may last for a few days or several months until the worker is fluent with the job duties.

Analysts also looked at the education and training levels that generally make individuals more competitive in the job market. This is the education level that some recommend that students acquire to help them be competitive throughout their career. At the competitive level, 35 percent of job openings require a college degree, 19 percent require some postsecondary training, such as a certificate, and the remaining 46 percent require related work experience.

Answer: all of the above. New jobs expected over the period are spread among low, medium, and high wage categories, as defined in Graph 2. Fifty-three percent of the total openings have a 2011 median wage of less than $33,000. On the high end, 26 percent of new jobs have a 2011 median wage of $50,000 or more.

Nearly all of the management, business, and financial jobs in 2010 are high wage (based on the median 2011 wage for each occupation in this category). High-wage jobs are concentrated in professional and related, and health care occupations. Professional jobs include computer occupations, engineers, science, and education occupations, among others.

On the other end of the spectrum, most of the service occupations and more than half of the sales and related category are low-wage jobs. Three broad categories have very few low-wage jobs: installation, maintenance, and repair; construction and extraction; and management, business, and financial.

The recession certainly put a damper on the growth trend experienced in the mid-2000s. Despite the current state of the economy, overall long-term trends are positive. Employment declines in some occupations will be offset by gains in others, but it will take time to bounce back from the recent downturn. Health care remains the bright spot on the horizon, and the baby boomers will eventually retire, creating many openings.

Detailed forecast tables are available on www.QualityInfo.org. To find them, go to the Publications page and look for Regional Employment Projections by Industry and Occupations, 2010-2020. You will find employment data for 720 occupations and all 15 workforce regions.